Coin flipping game from IMO 2019
Problem
Notations
Before we start we will need to introduce a few notations that can help with the proof.
Left and right movement in the process
Let’s start with \(N\) coins and find \(k\) coins with \(H\). Next we find a coin at kth position. There are two possible outcomes:

Coin at the kth position shows \(H\) (head). In this case, we flip the coin from \(H \to T\) which means that now we have \(k1\) coins with \(H\) and in the next step we will have to check coin at \((k1)\)th position

Coin at kth position has \(T\) on it. In this can we flip coin from \(T \to H\) which means that now we have \(k+1\) coins with \(H\) and in the next step we will have to check coin at \((k+1)\)th position
It’s easy to see that after one operation, the number of coins with \(H\) either increased or decreased by one. In this case, if the game didn’t get finished, we continue flipping a coin to the left or to the right from the coin observed in the previous step.
The “Hat” notation
We can imagine that there is a cursor that points at \(k\)th position at the first step and when we flip the coin this cursor always moves to the next coin in one of the two possible directions. We can indicate the coin at which the cursor points before the flip was made with a “hat” symbol. For example, we can start with the following sequence \(HHTTHTHH\) and go through 5 steps in order to see how state evolves with the new notation
 \(HHTT\widehat{H}THH\)
 \(HHT\widehat{T}TTHH\)
 \(HHTH\widehat{T}THH\)
 \(HHTHH\widehat{T}HH\)
 \(HHTHHH\widehat{H}H\)
In the first step, we can see that the sequence looks exactly like the initial sequence except that there is a “hat” on top of the 5th coin (because the original sequence has 5 \(H\)s). In the second step, we can see that the coin in the 5th position changed from \(H \to T\) and the hat moved to the 4th coin.
The “Side hat” notation
We can go one step further and introduce another notation for the intermediate step. In a single step we flip a coin and move the cursor to the next coin and with an intermediate step we will be able to do one operation at a time. We can imagine that each coin in the sequence “passes” the “hat” from right to the left or from left to the right. In addition, we can say that every time a coin flips (from \(H \to T\) or from \(T \to H\)) this hat falls and the other coin next to the hat picks it up and the whole process continues. Whether hat falls to the left or to the right from the coin depends on its initial state. When \(H\) changes to \(T\) the hat falls to the left and to the right in the opposite case. For example, instead of writing \(H\widehat{H}T \to \widehat{H}TT\) we can write \(H\widehat{H}T \to H \langle TT \to \widehat{H}TT\). With this new notation, previous sequence could be written in the following way
 \(HHTT\widehat{H}THH\)
 \(HHTT \langle T THH\)
 \(HHT\widehat{T}TTHH\)
 \(HHT H \rangle TTHH\)
 \(HHTH\widehat{T}THH\)
 \(HHTHH \rangle THH\)
 \(HHTHH\widehat{T}HH\)
 \(HHTHHH \rangle HH\)
 \(HHTHHH\widehat{H}H\)
 \(HHTHHH \langle T H\)
It’s important to note that we don’t have to use intermediate steps all the time. In fact, we can limit ourselves to one of the notations. For example, it might be enough to avoid all of the odd steps and focus only on the steps with even indices and in this case we will get the same stepbystep process, but in a slightly different format.
The “Sequence group” notation
Now we need to introduce one last notation. We can notice something interesting in the way a sequence changes when there are multiple repeated face values in a row. For example, let’s say we have a sequence \(\widehat{H}TTT\) and if we look through the first few steps we can notice some useful patterns.
 \(\widehat{H}TTT\)
 \(H\widehat{H}TT\)
 \(HH\widehat{H}T\)
 \(HHH\widehat{H}\)
Basically, repeated value of the coin forces us to apply the same operation over and over until the game ends or a new value has been encountered. In order to avoid repeating this operation over and over we can introduce notation in which sequence of the repeated face values could be combined into a single group and number of coins in this group could be represented with a subscript. This group will be called elementary group. For example, we can look through a few simple examples
 \(HHHTTHH \to H_3T_2H_2\)
 \(HHHH \to H_4\)
 \(HTHT \to H_1T_1H_1T_1\)
Notice that these examples don’t use the hat notation. We can simply assume that hat could be always assigned to a group with one face value in it. Although we can do it this will create some problems later when “hat” starts moving from one face value to another. Instead, we can completely ignore “hat” notation and focus only on the “side hat” notation (although similar trick could be done to the “hat” notation). We can assume that in subsequence of the form \(…H_m \rangle…\) hat on the right side always belongs to the right most coin in the subsequence and the same applies to the \(…\langle T_m…\) with the only difference that this time the side hat belongs to the left most element. In the beginning of the game, we might encounter a problem when the cursor points to a coin within an elementary group. We can see that with all new notations it shouldn’t be a problem. For example, let’s say we have the following sequence \(HHTTHTTHH\). For case like this we can assume that any group will be forced to become separated into groups that can’t be merged and this will be forced by the visual separator. So the previous example will be transformed into the following sequence \(HHTTHTTHH \to H_2T_3 \rangle T_2H_2\)
Proof
For any sequence there is a large number of possible arrangements of an elementary group into which sequence could be transformed. In the proof we always assume that sequences are transformed into a sequence of elementary groups in such a way that two groups with the same face value cannot be next to each other. In some way it’s very similar to the effect that coprimes have in fractions in the sense that sequence cannot be compressed into a smaller number of groups.
The goal of the proof is to show that any sequence of steps could be classified as one operation on the original sequence after which the number of groups always reduces by at least 1 unless the sequence could be expressed as a single elementary group.
First, we focus our attention to the place with a “side hat” in it. These are all possible options
 \(\langle T_N\)
 \(H_N \rangle\)
 \(…H_n \rangle T_m…\)
 \(…H_m \langle T_n…\)
 \(…H_n \rangle H_m…\)
 \(…T_m \langle T_n…\)
First and second options are quite trivial, because these are two special cases. These cases represent the only two possibilities when the “side hat” operator doesn’t have any sequences on one of the sides. First case means that the game just ended and the second case represents an arrangement in which the game will end in exactly \(N\) steps. This implies that every sequence that could be represented in the form of one group could be finished either in 0 steps (end of the game) or exactly \(N\) steps, where \(N\) is an initial length of the original sequence (a.k.a number of coins).
Third and Fourth are also quite simple cases. In the third sequence, we know that after one step we get the following partition \(…H_n \rangle T_m… \to …H_{n+1} \rangle T_{m1}… \) and after \(m\) steps we will get \(…H_n \rangle T_m… \overset{m}{\to} …H_{n+m} \rangle… \). And the same could be shown for the fourth sequence, since after \(m\) steps we will get \(…H_m \langle T_n… \overset{m}{\to} … \langle T_{n+m}…\).
The fifth case is a bit less straightforward, because after one step we will end up with more elementary groups than we started with
and after \(m\) steps we will get
For the case \(m=1\) we get \(H_{m1}=H_0\) which is a group with no coins. It means that after \(m\) steps we managed to reduce the number of groups. Let’s consider the case where \(m\ge2\). We know that there has to be a group to the left from \(T_{n+1}\), because there are some \(H\)s to the right and the operator should point to the kth coin. Also, we know that the group to the left cannot be in the form \(H_k\), otherwise it would have been combined with the \(H_n\), because we assume that two groups next to each other have two different face values. It means that we have to have a sequence \(…T_k \langle T_{n+1} H_{m1}…\). We can see how this sequence changes overtime
We can see that pattern repeats and we will either run out of \(T\)s or \(H\)s in one of the groups in which case again the number of elementary groups in the sequence will be reduced. We can show that for cases where \(k\ge m\) we will get a sequence
otherwise
where \(x=(m + n)(2m  1)\), \(y=(2k + 2n + 1)k\) and \(c\ge0\). \(c\) could be positive in case one of the formed group will be next to the other group with the same face value in which case these groups will be merged based on the initial assumption.
And the 6th case could be shown to be the same as the 5th case after a finite number of steps. As in the 5th case we have the same problem and as before we know that \(T_n\) cannot be the last elementary group in the sequence and we cannot have another \(T\) which means that the next group in the sequence should be of the form \(H_k\)
we can notice that after \(n+1\) steps we get sequence that looks exactly like sequence from the 5th case
It means that the same logic could be applied to this case as well and we guarantee to reduce the number of elementary groups after a finite number of steps.
And finally, we can conclude that when there are 2 or more elementary groups in the sequence than after a finite number of steps the number of basic groups will be reduced. And for cases where we have only one basic group we know that either we finished the game or the game will end in exactly \(N\) steps. These step prove that from any initial condition the game could be ended in finite number of steps
Find expected number of steps
As part of the second task we need to find the expected number of steps that we need to make in order to reach the end of the game with \(N\) coins. It looks like a difficult problem, considering that there are \(2^N\) possible arrangements of coins. We can make the problem quite simple by noticing an interesting pattern.
Let’s say we start with a random sequence of \(N\) coins. And now let’s imagine that we managed to find one extra coint, but instead of generating a new sequence we just decide to add this new coin at the end of the sequence. We know that the new coin should be either \(T\) or \(H\).
Let’s consider both cases. How will the number of steps change in case the new coin came up \(T\)? It’s easy to show that this wouldn’t make any difference, because this last coin will never be flipped from \(T \to H\). The only way to change \(T \to H\) is when we have \(N+1\) coins with \(H\). Even if the first \(N\) coins are all \(H\)s the last one is always \(T\) meaning that we will never have a situation where the cursor points to the \((N+1)\)th coin.
And now we can think about the second case where the last coin is \(H\). Because we proved that the game always ends in a finite number of steps there must be a way to convert any sequence of coins into an elementary group of the form \(T_{N+1}\) (\(N+1\) because we started with \(N\) coins and added one coin at the end of the sequence). Since the last coin is \(H\) we definitely know that within this process there has to be one step in which we will change the last coin from \(H \to T\). The last coin can be changed only when we have \(N+1\) coins with face value \(H\) which means that at some point sequence that ends with \(H\) should be transformed into the sequence of the form \(H_{N+1}\) and then after \(N+1\) steps it will be transformed to \(T_{N+1}\).
Now it looks like we got an inverse problem where we want to know what’s the expected number of steps after which sequence that ends with \(H\) converts to \(H_{N+1}\). First, we can notice that just need to find a way to transform first \(N\) coins to the sequence of the form \(H_N\) and because last coin is always \(H\) we will automatically end up with the \(H_{N+1}\) sequence.
If we rephrase the original problem and count \(T\)s instead of \(H\)s and flip coin at \(Nk\)th position where counting starts from right to left we will always get exactly the same sequences after every step. Now let’s say we replace \(H \to T\) and \(T \to H\), and count \(H\)s again, but still numerating coins from right to left. Because we replaced \(T \to H\) it means that at the end we want to get a sequence \(H_N\) rather than \(T_N\). And finally, we can reverse the position of all coins in order to be able to count from left to right without changing the initial index of the coin. This point of view shows that each sequence has a pair that could be obtained by replacing all \(H \to T\) and \(T \to H\) and reversing order of the coins. With this point of view we know that the expected number of steps that we need to do to form a sequence \(H_N\) is exactly the same as the expected number of steps for the original problem.
And finally, if we say that \(\mathbb{E}_N\) is the expected number of steps before the game with \(N\) coin ends then we can express it in the form
It’s also very easy to show that
.
It’s \(1/2\) because game with one coin either ends immediately or after one step, so expected value is equal to \(1/2\) (or we can say that for \(\mathbb{E}_{0}=0\), because with no coins game ends immediately).
And finally we can see that